NFL Survivor Pool Picks and Advice 2010: Week 9

NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES

1	Falcons	34.9%
2	Vikings	22.4%
3	Packers	10.2%
4	Saints	6.8%
5	Jets	6.7%
6	Patriots	6.2%
7	Giants	5.2%

2010 NFL Survivor Week 9

Teams used: New England, Atlanta, Minnesota, Green Bay, Baltimore, NY Giants, Kansas City, Dallas (L)

The streak ended last week.  I recommended the Cowboys---a poor team, with nothing to play for.  The selection was based purely on the Cowboys non-existent future utility value.  I ignored the negative pot odds, as the Cowboys were the 2^nd most popular choice.  In essence, I hoped to “steal” a win. The proper call for me last week was to recommend either Detroit, Arizona, or Indianapolis.  2 of these 3 teams came through.   We have been correct 41/43 weeks.  Time to get back on track with our pinpoint analysis.

Now it’s on to week 9.

Atlanta (over Tampa Bay) The Falcons are currently a 9 point favorite over the Bucs and have a 81% likelihood of winning.  The Falcons are the most popular choice this week.  Atlanta is available to probably 87% of live entries; The Falcons are off its bye week, and are playing for the division lead.  The Falcons only other spot to use them is in Week 17 (vs. Carolina).  If you have the Falcons available (we do not), you either use them now, or risk leaving them on the table.  I believe the Falcons win this game.

Minnesota (over Arizona) The Vikings are an 8 point favorite and have an 77% chance to win according to the Pinnacle sportsbook.   The Vikings are getting 22% of the picks, so are as likely to win as Atlanta,  but 2/3 as popular.  Minnesota, however, has a week 13 home game vs. Buffalo.  This future utility clearly trumps the negative pot odds in relation to Atlanta.  Also, the eyeball test tells me that Minnesota will be a riskier proposition this week than Atlanta.  Randy Moss was waived.  Percy Harvin is hobbling.  Rumors indicate Brad Childress has lost the locker room.  If you have to select between Atlanta and Minnesota, I suggest you take Atlanta.  The Vikings may play like the Cowboys played last week.

Green Bay (vs. Dallas) The Packers are currently -8 1/2 and have a 78% chance to win.  10% of the picks at Officefootballpool.com are on the Packers this week.   The Packers are a decidedly better option than either Minnesota or Atlanta.  Green Bay is almost as likely to win, but significantly less popular. Green Bay also presents very few future options.  The only risk of this spot is David Garrard publically accused Dallas of not playing hard last week.  This game is nationally televised.  Green Bay will get Dallas’ best shot.  Still, if you have Green Bay available (we don’t) you have to respect the pot odds and play your GB card this week over Atlanta or Minnesota.

New York (vs. Detroit) The Jets are a 4 point favorite and have a 68% chance to win.  The Jets are getting 6.7% of the picks.  New York offers a little future utility with Cincinnati (week 12) and Buffalo (week 17).

The Jets are off a shutout loss, and appear to be a solid choice to bounce back this week as Detroit is off a win.  The Jets are 10-4 straight up and against the spread on the road under Rex Ryan, and is 7-1 against the spread vs. .666 or less competition.  The Jets are an excellent pick if you are trying to avoid the traffic of your fellow pool players.

Philadelphia (vs. Indianapolis) Philadelphia is off the bye week, and is favored by a field goal over the Colts, who are off a Monday night affair.  The Eagles are 60% likely to win.  The Eagles get Mike Vick back at QB, are off a loss 2 weeks ago, and will win this game.  Better yet, not one person in your pool will pick Philadelphia this week.  Philadelphia does not have much future utility value with only a home game against Dallas to look forward to in Week 17.

Unfortunately we have burned the 3 biggest favorites this week, Minnesota, Atlanta, and Green Bay.

Atlanta will undoubtedly be the most popular selection in your pool, followed closely by Minnesota.

All 3 teams have limited future utility, with only Minnesota vs. Buffalo in week 13 a real standout choice.

Of the 3 heavy chalk, I trust Atlanta the most, by far. 

Our options, unfortunately, come down to the New York Jets and Philadelphia.  The Jets are more likely to win, but Philadelphia offers the greater pot odds, and the Eagles offer no future utility.  Furthermore, it could be argued that the popularity of Indianapolis, as well as the popularity of the Jets may distorted the lines just slightly enough so that in reality both the Jets and the Eagles are as likely to win as each other.  Greater pot odds and lack of future utility for the Eagles seal the deal.

The Pick: Philadelphia

Teams to avoid

New England (vs. Cleveland) The Patriots are a 5 point favorite and have a 72% likelihood of winning.  Cleveland is a home dog off the bye week, however.  While Cleveland, in its last game did upset the defending Super Bowl champion. Thus the Browns may be a “play against” based upon this theory.  Still, I defer to the home dog off the bye week angle.  No way do we fall for this trap.

New Orleans (vs. Carolina) The Panthers are a 7 point divisional revenging home dog from a 2 point loss earlier this year.  New Orleans is off a big win vs. the Steelers.  NFL dogs off a straight up and against the spread loss are 30-10 ATS on the year.  Stay away.

Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine.  Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool.  To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, or to be invited to next year’s pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com.