NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES
1 | Chargers | 24.8% |
2 | Cowboys | 19.1% |
3 | Saints | 12.5% |
4 | Steelers | 9.9% |
5 | Jets | 6.8% |
6 | Chiefs | 6.1% |
7 | Ravens | 6.0% |
8 | Bengals | 5.4% |
9 | Titans | 5.1% |
2010 NFL Survivor Week 11
Teams used: New England(W), Atlanta (W), Minnesota (W), Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), NY Giants (W), Kansas City (W), Dallas (L), Philadelphia (W) San Francisco (W)
Last week we had a miracle win in San Francisco. Although the 49ers were the ultimate suffer pick, We hope everyone took our advice and used San Francisco, staying away from Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay might come in handy vs. Detroit in week 15, and none of your competitors can use the Bucs. We have been correct 43/45 weeks. It’s time to stay on track with our pinpoint analysis.
Now it’s on to week 11.
San Diego (over Denver) The Chargers are currently a 10 point favorite over the Broncos and have a 83% likelihood of winning. The Chargers are the most popular choice this week getting 24% of the picks.
San Diego is off the bye and facing a Broncos squad fresh off a 49-29 victory off its bye vs. the Chiefs. The bye week shoe is on the other foot this week, and the Chargers should roll. San Diego, though, has tremendous future utility, however, with 3 straight home games vs. Oakland, KC, and SF weeks 13-15. Combined with its popularity, let’s try to find a better option.
Dallas (over Detroit) The Cowboys are a 6 1/2 point favorite over the Lions and have an 72% chance to win according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook. The Boys are getting 19% of the picks. This is not our better option. Dallas is significantly less likely to win than the Chargers, yet almost as popular. Detroit is off a loss to Buffalo last week, and the public will most certainly rush to the Cowboys this week off its upset win in New York last Sunday. I actually prefer Detroit in this spot. No way do I risk my survivor pool life on the Cowboys. Dallas is too popular this week, and the Cowboys are not any more likely to win than a host of other options.
New Orleans (vs. Seattle) The Saints are currently -11 1/2 and have an 86% chance to win. Only 12% of the picks at Officefootballpool.com are on the Saints this week. The Saints are the most likely team to win this week, yet few players have the Saints left to use. If you have the Saints available (we do), you should definitely consider playing your Saints card this week. By the way, the Saints offer only one other spot to use them this season, a week 14 home game vs. St. Louis. The Rams will be going to the Big Easy for its 3rd straight road game in week 14. I like the Saints in that spot, as well.
Pittsburgh, NY Jets, *Kansas City*,* Baltimore*, Tennessee, Cincinnati (vs. assorted mediocre teams) We have a number of teams this week that will provide options for players that 1) do not have New Orleans available; and 2) would prefer to save San Diego for when the Chargers are less popular. Of these 6 teams, if you have either KC or Baltimore available (most players don’t), absolutely play the Ravens or the Chiefs this week.
Tennessee or Cincinnati would be the next tier down. The Titans and Bengals are less popular than the Jets or the Steelers, but with no future utility. Lastly, I would positively pass on the Jets and the Steelers. Oakland is off a bye week, and the Steelers have a home game vs. Carolina in week 16. The Jets have home games against Buffalo, Cincinnati and Miami down the road.
There are a host of games to select this week. I would rank the available games in order of expected value preference: Baltimore, Kansas City, New Orleans, Tennessee, San Diego, Cincinnati.
We don't have Baltimore or Kansas City available, but we do have the Saints!
The Pick: New Orleans
Teams to avoid
Dallas (over Detroit) See above.
Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine. Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool. To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, or to be invited to next year’s pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com.
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