NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES
1 | Buccaneers | 54.9% |
2 | Giants | 28.0% |
3 | Colts | 7.4% |
4 | 49ers | 3.2% |
5 | Jets | 1.6% |
6 | Eagles | 1.5% |
7 | Cardinals | 1.3% |
2010 NFL Survivor Week 10
Teams used: New England (W), Atlanta (W), Minnesota (W), Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), NY Giants (W), Kansas City (W), Dallas (L), Philadelphia (W)
Last week our Philadelphia pick held on for a 2 point win vs. The Indianapolis Colts, even though the Referees tried very hard to give the game to Peyton Manning. We have been on the right side 41/43 weeks for our survivor picks.
Now it’s on to week 10, and for most players, this will be a challenging week to find a winner.
NY Giants (over Dallas) The Giants are currently a 14 point favorite over the Dallas and have a 92% likelihood of winning. We do not have the Giants available. Most of your fellow pool players do not, as well. Only 28% of the picks are being used on New York due to the lack of availability. In my personal pool, however, 44% of the remaining players have New York available, so I would expect a slightly higher percentage than 28% on NY in my pool. Either way, if you have the Giants to use this week, you must absolutely pick the Giants this week. No doubt about it.
Tampa Bay (over Carolina) The Bucs are currently -6.5 and have an 72% chance to win according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook money line. The Bucs are obscenely popular this week, capturing up to 55% of the selections. I had intended to pick the Bucs this week until I saw the numbers. With Carolina’s QB situation, and RB injuries, I thought Tampa Bay would be favored by 8. The sharps have sided with Carolina here. Carolina is playing with same-season revenge from a 20-7 loss earlier this season. Other than this victory, Tampa has yet to win a game by greater than 3 points. This game is setting up as a big time trap game for the Bucs. For survivor pool players, TB seems to be way too popular for my recommendation. TB has a little future utility value though, with a week 15 home game vs. Detroit and a week 16 home game vs. Seattle.
Indianapolis (vs. Cincinnati) The Colts are favored by 7 and have a 77% chance to win. The Colts are only getting 7.0% of the vote. The Colts are a much better option than Tampa Bay, if you do not have the Giants available to use, but do have the Colts available. The Colts are significantly less popular than the Bucs yet are more likely to win. We have the Colts available. It’s an interesting option, but I sure would rather wait for its home dates vs. either Dallas or Jacksonville when the Colts might be healthier. Also, if your pool requires double picks later in the season, you most definitely want to save the Colts, if possible.
San Francisco (vs. St. Louis) The Niners are favored by 6, and have a 71% chance to win according to the Pinnacle money line. The Niners are not popular at all, receiving only 3% of the picks. The Niners 2-6 record must have something to do with its lack of popularity. In fact, it is almost impossible to explain the popularity difference between Tampa Bay and San Francisco. The Niners are about as likely to win as Tampa Bay, yet Tampa Bay is 18 times more popular. If you do not have the Colts or the Giants available, you should really come in with the Niners before picking TB.
Pittsburgh (vs. New England) The Steelers are favored by 4 ½ points vs. New England, and have a 69% chance of winning. New England is off a loss, while Pittsburgh is off a Monday Night road win. No one is using the Steelers this week, probably due to the fear of going against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Pittsburgh still has games vs. Buffalo, Oakland, Cincinnati, and Carolina, so from a future utility value it would be tough to burn Pittsburgh here. I really think Pittsburgh wins this game though. Way too physical for the Patriots.
Arizona (vs. Seattle) Arizona is a 3 point favorite, and has a 63% likelihood of winning. Not popular at all, The Cards are in a quick turnaround revenge spot from a 22-10 loss to Seattle in week 7. The difference this week is Derek Anderson is starting rather than Max Hall. Arizona has played better in the past 2 weeks. If you seek an off the radar pick, Arizona might be your ticket this week. I like Arizona a lot here, but as of this writing it is unknown whether Matt Hasselback or Charlie Whitehurst starts for the Seahawks. If Hasselback does not get clearance to play, The Cards would probably be my choice.
We do not have the Giants available, so our choices come down to Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, San Francisco, Arizona, or Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have far easier games later this season. The Colts still have health issues. Tampa Bay seems the easiest of the 3 remaining choices, but the upside potential of either Arizona (vs. Whitehurst) or better yet, San Francisco, a team that is as likely to win as Tampa Bay, yet decidedly less popular is just too difficult to ignore. Assume you have 100 players left in your pool and everyone is picking TB or the Giants. Assume the Giants win. If we pick SF, on Sunday night, there is a 50% chance that TB and SF wins and we still have 100 players left in our pool. There is a 10% chance that both TB and SF lose, and it doesn’t matter. But there is a 20% chance that SF wins and TB loses; and the same 20% chance that TB wins and SF loses. The difference is that one outcome with a 20% probability produces 45 survivors, while the other outcome with the same probability produces 97 survivors. The staggering pot odds forces our hand to the Bay Area.
The Pick: San Francisco
Teams to avoid
New York Jets (vs. Cleveland) Cleveland is a home dog off upset wins vs. New Orleans and New England. The Eric Mangini revenge tour continues this week. The Brownies. Again.
Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine. Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool. To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, or to be invited to next year’s pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com
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