NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES
1 | Browns | 45.7% |
2 | Jets | 26.7% |
3 | Patriots | 8.0% |
4 | Steelers | 6.3% |
5 | Giants | 3.4% |
6 | Texans | 2.9% |
7 | Broncos | 2.0% |
2010 NFL Survivor Week 12
Teams used: New England(W), Atlanta (W), Minnesota (W), Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), NY Giants (W), Kansas City (W), Dallas (L), Philadelphia (W) San Francisco (W) New Orleans (W)
Last week we came in with New Orleans and came out with an easy win. There were not many upsets in week 11, save a 2nd half collapse by Cincinnati, and a Vince Young meltdown in Tennessee. Not many players were on the Bengals or the Titans, so unfortunately there is still a lot of work for most of you to do to win your pool. We have been correct 44/46 weeks. It’s time to stay on track with our pinpoint analysis.
Now it’s on to week 12.
Cleveland (over Carolina) The Browns are currently an 11 point favorite over the Panthers and have a 85% likelihood of winning. The Browns are the most popular choice this week getting 45% of the picks at officefootballpool.com. Right now Colt McCoy’s status is iffy, but I think he is likely to play. Even if he rests this week, the Browns can turn to Seneca Wallace or former Panthers QB Jake Delhomme. Obviously, the Browns have no future value. Sure, it would be nice to avoid a popular pick, but in week 12, the goal is to survive.
NY Jets (over Cincinnati) The Jets are a 8 1/2 point favorite over the Lions and have an 79% chance to win according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook. The Jets are getting 26% of the picks. The Jets are almost as likely to win as the Browns, but about half as popular. Clearly the Expected Value numbers favor taking the Jets this week over the Browns. The competing issue, however, is the Jets future utility. The Jets have home games with Miami in week 14 and the Bills in week 17. If you have already used New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and San Diego, I would suggest saving the Jets for week 14, at the least.
New England (vs. Detroit) The Patriots are currently -6 1/2 and have an 73% chance to win. Only 8% of the picks at Officefootballpool.com are on the Pats this week. Most players, including us, have used the Pats by now. If you haven’t, this would be one of your last chances to play New England this year. The Patriots also have a road game in Buffalo week 16.
NY Giants (vs. Jacksonville) The G-Men are currently 8 point chalk and have a 78% chance of winning this week. The Giants are only getting 3% of the picks. The Giants clearly have the most expected value return this week. If you have the Giants available (we don’t), now would be a great week to play the New York card.
Having burned New England and the NY Giants our choice this week comes down to the J-E-T-S- Jets Jets Jets or the Cleve Brownies. It is hard to disregard the Expected Value in favor of the NY Jets. The fact remains, however, that the Jets will provide us with further flexibility in future weeks. Also, Cincinnati is playing the Jets this week with playoff revenge from last year, and might be a little angry after last week’s 2nd half meltdown. Cleveland is off a difficult loss and should be hungry this week to bounce back. Cleveland does not have a high octane offense, so the gamewith Carolina figures to be closer than most expect. With the Carolina QB problems, however, if the Browns do not turn the ball over, Cleveland still should win this game.
The Pick: Cleveland
Teams to avoid
Pittsburgh (over Buffalo) The Steelers are favored by 6 points and only have a 70% chance of winning this week. Buffalo will be a live home dog with momentum after its 35-0 2nd half in Cincinnati last week. With the Steelers clearly having better home spots this year vs. Cincinnati in week 14 and the lowly Carolina Panthers in week 16, no way do we risk the upset this week.
Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine. Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool. To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com.
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