NFL SURVIVOR POOL PICKS AND ADVICE 2010: WEEK 8

NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES

1	Chiefs	50.3%
2	Cowboys	12.4%
3	Jets	10.2%
4	Patriots	8.8%
5	Colts	5.7%
6	Rams	5.2%

2010 NFL Survivor Week 8

Teams used: New England, Atlanta, Minnesota, Green Bay, Baltimore, NY Giants, Kansas City

Well, 7 weeks into the season and we are still perfect, with really not too much of a sweat.  In fact, I do not believe that any of our 7 picks have been behind in the 2^nd half at any point in our games.  Last week we warned everyone about the potential for the upset in Baltimore.  I hope everyone that had Baltimore as an option saved the Ravens for week 12.  If nothing else, you probably added 3 months to your life.

Now it’s on to week 8, and what a difficult week this is.

Kansas City (over Buffalo) The Chiefs are currently a 7 ½ point favorite over the Bills and have a 76% likelihood of winning.  Now, we burned KC last week so we thankfully cannot use the Pats.  However, if you have the Chiefs available, you can see by the above chart that they are extremely popular this week, garnering 50% of the picks.  Way too popular this week when considering other options.  From a future utility value, KC still has Arizona in week 11 and Oakland in week 17. 

Dallas (over Jacksonville) The Cowboys are currently -6.5 and have an 72% chance to win according to the Pinny money line.  The Cowboys are only getting 12% of the picks, so are almost as likely to win as Kansas City,  but 1/4 as popular.  Dallas has zero future utility value, especially when one considers Tony Romo is out for 8 weeks.  Meanwhile, Jacksonville is getting David Garrard back this week.  Dallas is an interesting, yet risky option this week.

NY Jets (vs. Green Bay) The Jets are currently -6 and have an 71% chance to win.  10% of the picks at OFP are on the Jets this week.   The Jets are a comparable pick to Dallas.  The Jets are coming off its bye week and should be fresh.  Green Bay is off an emotional win vs. Minnesota on Sunday night.  I would have no problem using the Jets in this spot.  The Jets, however, do have future utility.  The Flyboys have @ Detroit (week 9) @ Cleveland (Week 10) Cincinnati (Week 12) and a home game with Buffalo (Week 17). 

Indianapolis (vs. Houston) The Colts are favored by 5 ½ and have a 71% chance to win.  The Colts are only getting 5.8% of the vote.  The Colts are an interesting option. The Colts are half as popular as Dallas and the Jets, yet almost as likely to win.  Indy is playing with revenge from its Week 1 ambush in Houston.  Still, with Indianapolis depleted by injuries, and with a week 15 game vs. Jacksonville to look forward to, I would rather save Indy for when it has a healthy squad and a less challenging opponent.

Arizona, Detroit, and St. Louis (vs. Tampa Bay, Washington, and Carolina)  Each of these 3 bottom feeders each are favored by about a field goal, have about a 58% likelihood of winning, and offer zero future utility value.  I like all 3 teams this week.  Only St. Louis is garnering any attention getting 5% of the picks at OFP.  Thus, if you wanted to steal a win either with Detroit or Arizona for the most upside, you would have my blessing.

This is as challenging a week as any I can remember.  I had Dallas penciled in for this week from the beginning of the season.  The Tony Romo injury sure does complicate matters.  I can’t say I am terribly confident of Jon Kitna  QB’ing the Cowboys.  Still, the fact remains that this is a last man standing pool, and it will help us greatly to have the Jets and the Colts available for the stretch run.  In fact, looking ahead to next week, we have burned the 2 best teams that will be available…Minnesota and Atlanta.  It looks like we might need the Jets as soon as next week.   While I surely would like to have the guts to tell you to pick the Lions or the Cardinals this week, I will defer to the Vegas linemakers that have determined each team’s statistical probability of winning.

May God be with us this week.

The Pick: Dallas

Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine.  Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool.  To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, or to be invited to next year’s pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com.