1 | Steelers | 66.0% |
2 | Giants | 22.1% |
3 | Bears | 3.6% |
4 | Chargers | 3.4% |
5 | 49ers | 2.1% |
Teams used: New England, Atlanta, Minnesota, Green Bay, Baltimore
Well, 5 weeks into the season and we have been on the right side of 4 easy blowout winners, and only one suffer pick—Green Bay over Detroit in week 4. We have also had an uncanny ability to advise you on the upsets to avoid, and week 5 was no different as we correctly called Oakland’s upset of San Diego. Your pool probably has about 35% of the original entrants still alive. The fun now begins. Now it’s on to week 6.
Pittsburgh (vs. Cleveland) The Steelers currently favored by 13 1/2 points, and has an 86% chance to win according to Pinnacle. Of course, any chalk laying this type of wood is undoubtedly going to be VERY popular. Big Ben is back for the Steelers, and Colt McCoy gets to make his NFL debut vs. Dick LeBeau’s defense. Pittsburgh is going to win this affair, but 66% of the picks at OFP are on the Black and Gold. The Steelers have future value galore with a home game remaining vs. Oakland (week 11), at Buffalo (week 12) and a home game vs. Carolina (week 16). I would love to keep the Steelers around and play my Pittsburgh card when no one else can.
NY Giants (over Detroit) The Giants are favored by 10 points over Detroit, and have an 81% chance of winning according to Pinny. While less likely to win than the Steelers, the Giants are only receiving 22% of the action. The bigger issue is future utility. New York’s future utility value is non-existent, with only a home game vs. Jacksonville (week 12) and Washington (week 13) to look forward to. This is really the best and only chance to use New York for the remainder of the year. I can make the argument that Pittsburgh over Buffalo on the road in week 12 will be a safer option than New York’s home affair over Jacksonville, so we can use the Steelers in week 12, or even save the Steelers for Carolina in week 16 and come in with Denver over St. Louis in week 12. Taking the gamble with New York this week will set us up to possibly win the pool in later weeks.
San Diego (vs. St. Louis) San Diego is currently a 9 point favorite and has a 79 % chance of success to survive this week. San Diego is getting only 3% of the picks, but like Pittsburgh has great future value with home games vs. Denver (week 11), Oakland (week 12), Kansas City (week 13), and San Francisco (week 14). The Chargers would also be good to keep around. While the Chargers have tremendous pot odds this week, I just don’t see the upset in Pittsburgh happening. No reason to take road chalk that has already shown its ability to lose every road game this year at Seattle, Oakland, and Kansas City. Save the Bolts for a home game in weeks 11-14.
The Giants are definitely a riskier pick this week than grabbing the layup that Pittsburgh provides. The Lions offense has been frisky this year, scoring 26 points in Green Bay and 44 points at home the last 2 weeks. There is no doubt that the Lions could pull an upset here. I want to make it clear that I have no problem if anyone chose to just take Pittsburgh and move into week 7. The only way the Browns can steal a win in Pittsburgh is if Joshua Cribbs breaks a punt return, or Big Ben throws 2 pick sixes. The Steelers will take away Peyton Hillis and Colt McCoy does not have the WRs to beat the Steelers. As I started to research this week’s column, I had every intention to just recommend Pittsburgh and take the easy way out. However, this column’s purpose is to help you win your Survivor Pool, rather than just stay alive a few weeks longer. To win your pool, you will have to take a different path than the traffic to obtain the future opportunity to play with strength when your competitors play with weakness. You also will have to utilize teams on your board when the best opportunity presents itself. It’s now or never for New York. We are going to avoid the traffic on Pittsburgh’s North Side, and head to the Big Apple.
The Pick: New York Giants
Teams to avoid in week 4
Chicago (vs. Seattle) Chicago is favored by 7, and has a 75% chance to win. Jay Cutler is back from his concussion. Seattle has been non-competitive on the road this year. Like New York, Chicago has zero future utility value. If this game was played last week, it might have been an interesting option. With the New York Giants on the board, there is no reason to even consider Chicago here. Seattle is off a loss and off its bye week. Just no reason to go against this combination with a quarterback I don’t trust named Jay Cutler.
San Francisco (vs. Oakland) San Francisco is currently favored by 6 ½ points over Oakland, and has a 72% chance of winning. At 0-5, it is just not worth the risk to buy into the 49ers. If you really have to fulfill a need to use San Fran, just wait for its home game vs. St. Louis (week 10).
Good luck to all this week.
Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine. Each week, the Kmish will provide his expert insight to you on how to stay alive in your survivor pool. To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, or to be invited to next year’s pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com.
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