NFL Survivor Pool Picks and Advice 2010: Week 7

1	Ravens	45.2%
2	Saints	21.9%
3	Broncos	16.0%
4	Chiefs	9.0%
5	Seahawks	4.0%

Teams used:  New England, Atlanta, Minnesota, Green Bay, Baltimore, NY Giants

6 for 6 so far this year, and we really haven’t had to sweat very much.  Your pool probably has about 30% of the original entrants still alive.  Hopefully our advice has helped you to stay alive.  Also, we have been calling a lot of the upsets.  Last week, our top pick to stay away from---the Chicago Bears---were upset by Seattle.  Now it’s on to week 7.

Baltimore (vs. Buffalo) The Ravens are currently favored by 13 points over the 0-5 Bills, and have a 86% chance to win according to Pinny.  45% of the picks at OFP are coming in on the Ravens.  We have burned Baltimore, but even if we had the Ravens available, NO WAY do we use the Black Birds here.  Also, winless double digit underdogs (like the Bills) off the bye week tend to pull off shocking upsets over the years.  Now, I am not saying the Bills will win here…or am I?? If you have the Ravens available, I suggest you save them for Week 12 vs. Tampa Bay.

New Orleans (vs. Cleveland) Like the Ravens, the Saints are currently favored by 13 points, but are half as popular as Baltimore.  The Saints have an 86% chance to win according to Pinny. The Saints are a significantly better option than Baltimore this week.  Colt McCoy acquitted himself quite well last week vs. Pittsburgh, and should have an easier time this week vs. New Orleans. The Saints are likely to win, but the Saints do have some future value with home games remaining vs. Seattle (week 11) St. Louis (week 14), and Tampa Bay (week 17).  I would love to keep the Saints around and play my New Orleans card when no one else can.

Denver (vs. Oakland) Denver is currently favored by 8 ½ over Oakland and have a 78 % chance to win according to Pinny.  Denver is getting 16% of the picks at OFP.  While less popular than New Orleans, the Broncos are significantly less likely to win than the Saints are.  Denver does have St. Louis in Week 12 which might offer comparable security.  In the past 2 years Denver has burned Survivor Pool players more than any other team.  No way I would not drop down to Denver, and leave New Orleans on the table for a 6% difference in popularity.

Kansas City (vs. Jacksonville) Kansas City is currently favored by 9 1/2 points over Jacksonville, have an 81% chance to win, yet are receiving only 9% of the picks at OFP.  This number is likely to rise however, as the books were waiting until Thursday night to release a line due to the quarterback injuries for Jacksonville.  3^rd stringer Todd Bouman is likely to start. Kansas City is off 2 difficult losses and returns home for the first game in a month.  It’s counterpart, Jacksonville, was embarrassed on national TV Monday night.  I would expect both teams to have the mind-set to bounce back.  Only KC, though, will have the manpower.  The Jaguars, due to injuries, simply will be outmatched.  KC will be able to put 8 in the box to take away Jones-Drew, and the Jaguars do not have the QB or the WRs to take advantage.  From a future utility standpoint, Kansas City has Buffalo (week 8) and Oakland (week 17).  KC is likely to be VERY popular in week 8.  In fact, Dallas (vs. Jacksonville) and KC will draw all the picks next week.  I do not wish to hold Kansas City for week 8 when 40% of the pool will use the Chiefs.   Nor do I wish to dance with a winless Bills team.  I also will never save a team for week 17.  This is simply a great spot to use KC against an injured team on a short week with travel.  Let’s keep the Saints in the back pocket.

The Pick: Kansas City

Teams to avoid in week 7

Seattle (vs. Arizona) Seattle is favored by 6, and has a 72% chance to win.   Seattle is off a dog win and is now favored vs. a team off its bye week.  Seattle was favored once this year, losing outright vs. the Rams.  Division dogs are 21-6 ATS in 2010.  I see no reason to go against a rested divisional dog.  Last week teams off the bye were 4-0.

Good luck to all this week.

Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine. Each week, the Kmish will provide his expert insight to you on how to stay alive in your survivor pool. To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, or to be invited to next year’s pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com.