NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES
1 | Falcons | 20.1% |
2 | Colts | 17.8% |
3 | 49ers | 17.3% |
4 | Rams | 9.3% |
5 | Lions | 8.8% |
2010 NFL Survivor Week 17
Teams used: New England (W), Atlanta (W), Minnesota (W), Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), NY Giants (W), Kansas City (W), Dallas (L), Philadelphia (W), San Francisco (W) New Orleans (W) Cleveland (W) San Diego (L) Pittsburgh (W) Tampa Bay (L-OT) Jacksonville (L-OT)
Well, we were dead right on our games to avoid last week as Dallas and Houston were each risky road chalk and were upset by Arizona and Denver, respectively. Unfortunately our pick of Jacksonville treated us to the second straight OT loss as Maurice Jones-Drew was surprisingly announced as inactive 2 days after we wrote our column. Next year I will see if Big Al will let us get our column in closer to Sunday!!! The extra time would have saved us the past 2 weeks. On a brighter note, my personal pool that I manage crowned a champion last week as the winner survived with double picks of New England and St. Louis, while 13 of our fellow players got knocked out. We had a record $140,000 pot. It was a lot of fun to see a single player stand alone in week 16. This has been a tough month for our column, but our column has been on the right side 45/50 weeks for our survivor picks, so let’s close out the year on a high note. If you are still alive, now is not the time to bite the dust.
Atlanta (vs. Carolina) The Falcons are the most popular choice at officefootballpool.com this week, and for good reason. The Falcons are a 14 point favorite, and have an 88% chance of winning according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook moneyline. Atlanta is off a loss, and needs this game to clinch the No. 1 seed. If you are fortunate enough to have Atlanta available, you know what to do.
Indianapolis (vs. Tennessee) The Colts are currently a 10 point favorite over Houston and have a 81% likelihood of winning. The Colts are the 2nd most popular choice this week, getting 17% of the picks. Indianapolis needs to win this game, or Jacksonville needs to lose at Houston, for the Colts to win the division. I expect Jacksonville to lose. However, both games kickoff at 4:15. You should receive maximum effort from the Colts. Most people have used Indianapolis. If you haven’t used Indianapolis but do not have Atlanta available, the Colts are an attractive option.
San Francisco (vs. Arizona) The 49ers are currently - 6 over the Cards and have an 72% chance to win according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook money line. The 49ers are also getting 17% of the picks at OFP. Most people have burned Atlanta, Indianapolis, or even Green Bay increasing the popularity of San Francisco. Arizona is off an upset win vs. Dallas and might not be hungry this week
San Francisco also has nothing to play for, and just fired Mike Singletary. Still, for many players San Francisco might be your only option.
St. Louis (vs. Seattle) The Rams are road chalk this week laying 3 points in Seattle. The Rams are overly popular getting 9 % of the picks while only having a 60% likelihood of winning. The popularity of St. Louis relates to the fact that Seattle might have to turn to Charlie Whitehurst at QB this week. Might be an overlay.
Detroit (vs. Minnesota) Detroit has comparable numbers to St. Louis above. Favored by 3, and getting 8% of the picks. I prefer Detroit over St. Louis. But for Minnesota’s upset road win at Philadelphia Tuesday night, Detroit would be favored by 6 ½ points this Sunday. This might be an underlay. If your choices are either Detroit or St. Louis, take the home team with line value.
We do not have Atlanta available, but we do have the Colts. I have to believe the Colts end our year on a positive note.
If your choices are either San Francisco, Detroit or St. louis I would lean to Detroit. I believe the Lions will be decidedly less popular with most of your fellow players creating higher expected value as all 3 teams are about as likely to win.
The Pick: Indianapolis
Congrats to everyone who has survived to week 17. I wish everyone good luck in finding a winner today.
Teams to avoid
Jacksonville (vs. Houston) While mathematically still alive to win the division, the Jags are off 2 losses and are playing into a revenging divisional home dog off a loss. Houston is probably the better team, and will be motivated after losing to Jacksonville on a Hail Mary 4 weeks ago. Trent Edwards gets the QB call for Jax. I would pick Houston completely before I would pick Jacksonville.
New England (vs. Miami) New England is favored by 4 points and has nothing to play for. The Dolphins will play hard in this divisional affair. Stay away from this upset maker.
New York Jets (vs. Buffalo) For the same reasons above, stay away from the Jets who have locked up a wild card seed. The Jets should rest many players in the 2nd half.
Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine. Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool. To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, or to be invited to next year’s pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com
No comments:
Post a Comment