NFL Survivor Pool Picks, Advice and Strategies 2010: Week 14

NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES

1	Falcons	32.2%
2	Jets	16.6%
3	Steelers	14.3%
4	Jaguars	11.1%
5	Saints	6.3%
6	Chargers	3.8%

2010 NFL Survivor Week 14

Teams used: New England(W), Atlanta (W), Minnesota (W), Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), NY Giants (W), Kansas City (W), Dallas (L), Philadelphia (W) San Francisco (W) New Orleans (W) Cleveland (W) San Diego (L)

Last week we suffered an unexpected setback as our pick on the San Diego Chargers over Oakland failed to come through for us.  It is our first pick in 3 years that I felt strongly about that failed to win.  I am understandably not amused this week as the upset knocked me out of my own private pool.  Still, we have been correct 44/47 weeks.  It’s time to get back on track with our pinpoint analysis.

Now it’s on to week 14.

Atlanta (over Carolina) The Falcons are currently a 7 1/2 point favorite over the Panthers and have a 75% likelihood of winning.  The Falcons are the most popular choice this week getting 32% of the picks at officefootballpool.com.  To me, this line seems a little “soft.”  I expected to see -9 on the game.  The Falcons are just not a tempting situation for me this week.  The Falcons are way too popular, and it seems like a little bit of a trap game.

NY Jets (over Miami) The Jets are a 5 1/2 point favorite over the Dolphins and have an 69% chance to win according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook.   The Jets are getting 16% of the picks.  The Jets are almost as likely to win as the Falcons, but about half as popular.  Clearly the expected value numbers favor taking the Jets this week over the Falcons. 

Pittsburgh (vs. Cincinnati) The Steelers are currently -9 1/2 and have an 81% chance to win.  Only 14% of the picks at Officefootballpool.com are on the Steelers this week.   Pittsburgh is clearly a better choice than either Atlanta or the Jets.  This is a decent spot to use the Steelers; but if you wish to save the Steelers for an even better spot, Pittsburgh has a week 16 tilt vs. Carolina.

Jacksonville (vs. Oakland) The Jags are currently 4 1/2 point chalk and have a 67% chance of winning this week.  The Giants are only getting 11 % of the picks.   I personally feel the Jags get the win this week.  Oakland has not fared well this year as a west coast team travelling east getting crushed by Tennessee and Pittsburgh, getting outscored 75-13 in the process.  I also feel there are more compelling options.

Having burned Atlanta and New Orleans this year our choice this week comes down to Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, or the NY Jets.  The Jaguars do not entice us this week mainly because Jacksonville faces an even weaker opponent in week 16, Washington.  The Jets are appealing only because it is off an extremely humiliating 45-3 Monday night loss to the Patriots.  I fully expect New York to bounce back this week.   Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is off a big road win vs. Baltimore and returns home as 9 ½ point chalk vs. a revenging Bengals team.  It is tempting to save Pittsburgh for week 16 vs. Carolina but the fact remains the Steelers are less popular yet significantly more likely to win than the Jets.  The Steelers and the Saints are the 2 teams most likely to win this week.  We have the Steelers available.  Week 16 will give us plenty of options.

The Pick: Pittsburgh

Teams to avoid

Philadelphia (over Dallas) The Eagles are favored by 3 1/2 points and only have a 66% chance of winning this week.  Dallas is playing hard for its new coach and is returning home finding itself in a dog role after an outright dog win vs. Indianapolis.  The Eagles are 4-0 ATS since Wade Phillips was released.  Stay away.

Denver (over Arizona) The Broncos, winners once in their last eight tries get installed as 3 ½ point road chalk vs. the hapless Cards.  A number of players emailed me this week about trying to steal a win with an under the radar Broncos pick.  Yes, I realize the Cards are starting a rookie QB.  Still, attempted theft will get you 5 to 10.  Or a suicide pool knockout.  Keep your hands where I can see them.

Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine.  Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool.  To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com.