NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES
1 | Eagles | 29.0% |
2 | Jaguars | 28.7% |
3 | Steelers | 14.8% |
4 | Cowboys | 12.3% |
5 | Patriots | 2.6% |
6 | Buccaneers | 2.5% |
7 | Dolphins | 2.5% |
2010 NFL Survivor Week 16
Teams used: New England(W), Atlanta (W), Minnesota (W), Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), NY Giants (W), Kansas City (W), Dallas (L), Philadelphia (W) San Francisco (W) New Orleans (W) Cleveland (W) San Diego (L) Pittsburgh (W) Tampa Bay (L)
Last week we wrote the column 3 days too early. At the time of print there was no line on the Chicago-Minnesota game due to injuries. The early bird line was Chicago – 1 ½. We had Chicago available. We selected Tampa Bay, a 5 point favorite on Wednesday. By Saturday night, a line was finally released on Chicago-Minnesota. Chicago – 8. Tampa Bay was down to – 3 1/2. By Saturday, there is no doubt Chicago would have been our selection. To make matters worse, Tampa Bay lost in overtime after a Bucs TD was taken away for an offensive pass interference call. Although we are only playing for pride at this stage of the 2010 season, I sure do like to make a correct call. Oh well. Can we get a mulligan?? Still, we have been correct 45/49 weeks, so let’s keep the train rolling.
Now it’s on to week 16.
The Heavy Chalk
Philadelphia (vs. Minnesota)
Pittsburgh (vs. Carolina)
New England (vs. Buffalo)
San Diego (vs. Cincinnati)
Most players will not have one of the above teams available this week at such a late stage of the season. If you have any of these 4 teams available, you already know what to do. Play your strong card. While San Diego and New England might be a little scary as road chalk, all 4 of the above options are better than anything else on the board.
Jacksonville (vs. Washington) The Jags are currently a 7 point favorite over the Skins and have a 74% likelihood of winning. The Jags are the most popular choice this week getting 28% of the picks at officefootballpool.com. This is a must win game for Jacksonville. If you have Jacksonville available, but do not have Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New England or San Diego, you should use the Jaguars in this spot. We have Jacksonville available and it is our best option.
Tampa Bay (vs. Seattle) The Bucs are a 6 point favorite over the Seahawks and have a 70% chance to win according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook. While most players do not have Tampa Bay available, if you have both the Bucs and the Jaguars available, Tampa Bay will offer you significantly more expected value than Jacksonville. Tampa Bay is almost as likely to win, but decidedly less popular.
St. Louis (vs. San Francisco) The Rams are in a terrific spot this week in its last home game vs. the 49ers playing with revenge from an earlier OT loss in week 10. Currently, the Rams are a 2 point favorite and are probably available to many of your competitors, as well. Still, due to the coin flip nature of this matchup, many players may avoid St. Louis this week. I really like the Rams to emerge victorious. If you are scarce on options and are looking for winner, the Rams may be your best bet.
Week 16 is a straight forward week for most players. Survive by all means necessary. Take the safest and biggest favorite you have available. For us, it’s the Jags.
The Pick: Jacksonville
Teams to avoid
Houston (vs. Denver) The Texans are favored by 3 points and have a 56% chance of winning this week. Tim Tebow will make his first home start vs. Houston in the Texans’ last road game of the season. From week 15-17, road chalk is 8-31 ATS when playing its last road game off a division contest. Stay off of Houston’s radar.
Indianapolis (vs. Oakland) The exact same situation as Houston vs. Denver above. Stay away.
Dallas (vs. Arizona) Maybe I shouldn’t place Dallas in the teams to avoid section because it’s week 16, and options are limited right now for many players. Dallas is a 6 point favorite in Arizona’s last home game on Christmas Day. The Cowboys are getting 12% of the picks indicating that a large number of players have the Cowboys available. While I would not fault a player in using Dallas with no other options, this game smells trouble. Fresh off 2 divisional home games with another divisional game at Philly on deck, this divisional sandwich might cause severe indigestion. Enjoy your holiday. Christmas is not meant to be spent getting knocked out of your Survivor Pool.
Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine. Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool. To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com.
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