NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES
1 | Raiders | 30.8% |
2 | Chargers | 21.3% |
3 | Cowboys | 13.9% |
4 | Dolphins | 8.9% |
5 | Patriots | 8.9% |
6 | Buccaneers | 7.2% |
7 | Falcons | 3.0% |
8 | Bears | 2.8% |
9 | Colts | 1.0% |
2010 NFL Survivor Week 15
Teams used: New England(W), Atlanta (W), Minnesota (W), Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), NY Giants (W), Kansas City (W), Dallas (L), Philadelphia (W) San Francisco (W) New Orleans (W) Cleveland (W) San Diego (L) Pittsburgh (W)
We got back on track last week as Pittsburgh rolled to an easy win vs. the Bengals. Some of you may have got knocked out by the Jets loss to Miami or Denver’s crushing upset at the hands of Arizona. We clearly warned you that Denver was a horrible selection last week as Denver has now lost the last 8 games that it has been a popular selection in Survivor pools over the past 4 seasons. 8 failures in a row for the Broncos. Denver is the ultimate survivor pool mush. (Although---surprise--- we love Denver this week!!!) We have been correct 45/48 weeks, so let’s keep the train rolling.
Now it’s on to week 15.
San Diego (vs. San Francisco) The Chargers are currently a 10 point favorite over the 49ers and have a 82% likelihood of winning. The Chargers are the 2nd most popular choice this week getting 21% of the picks at officefootballpool.com. This is the last home game for San Diego. We do not have the Chargers available, although we wish we did. San Diego is the team most likely to win this week. If you have them, play them.
Dallas (vs. Washington) The Cowboys are a 6 point favorite over the Redskins and have an 69% chance to win according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook. The Cowboys are getting 14% of the picks. In week 1, Dallas outplayed Washington, but was upset sending the Cowboys’ season into a tailspin from the start. Dallas has not forgotten this loss. If you do not have San Diego, but do have Dallas, the Cowboys are your next best option. We do not have Dallas.
New England (vs. Green Bay) This game currently has no line due to the status of Aaron Rodgers. We do not have New England available. If you do have the Pats, and if Rodgers is not playing, you know what to do!
Tampa Bay (vs. Detroit) The Bucs are currently -5 1/2 and have an 67% chance to win. Only 7% of the picks at Officefootballpool.com are on the Bucs this week as most players burned the Bucs vs. Carolina. We did not. The Bucs are a viable option for us.
Indianapolis (vs. Jacksonville) The Colts are currently 4 1/2 point chalk and have a 67% chance of winning this week. The Colts are only getting 1 % of the picks. Most people do not have the Colts available. We do. In fact, if San Diego did not unkindly knock us out of our double pick pool 2 weeks ago, the plan was to try to win our pool with Tampa Bay and Indianapolis this week. Ahhhh, the best laid plans of mice and men…….The Colts are as likely to win as Tampa Bay, but less popular. The Colts, however, do offer future utility for us in week 17 vs. Tennessee. Utility that I think we will need.
Week 15 is a tricky week for most players. I feel this week is critically important in the games to avoid as I sense 3 big upsets that will happen (see below). Hopefully, all of you can play one of either Dallas, San Diego, New England, Indianapolis or Tampa Bay. This is a difficult decision for us this week as I prefer Indianapolis more this week than I prefer Tampa Bay. The problem for us if we take the Colts this week, is week 17 when our options will be reduced to either the Jets or Houston. Neither team may play starters. I prefer to save Indianapolis for week 17. If Indianapolis wins this week, it will need to win in week 17 vs. Tennessee. If the Colts lose this week, then I am glad I avoided them.
The Pick: Tampa Bay, sort've by default
Teams to avoid
Oakland (vs. Denver) The Raiders are favored by 6 1/2 points and have a 71% chance of winning this week. Oakland is the most popular selection this week with 30% of the picks backing the Crack and Silver. In week 7, Oakland took the Broncos behind the woodshed and humiliated Denver 59-14. Last week, Denver received a second dose of humiliation losing 43-13 to Arizona. With blowout loss revenge to Oakland, plus a blowout loss last week, the Broncos will bounce back and beat Oakland this Sunday.
Call your bookie and bet Denver this Sunday. The points are the bonus.
Miami (vs. Buffalo) The Dolphins are favored by 5 /1/2 over the Bills and have a 66% likelihood of winning. Just like Oakland above, Miami is playing into a revenging underdog from a week 1 matchup. Miami is off a big upset win at the Jets last week. I expect a letdown in Miami this Sunday. The Dolphins are 1-5 at home this season. Buffalo outright. Stay away.
Atlanta (vs. Seattle) This upset alert might surprise many but I sense a dangerous trip to the Pacific Northwest for the Falcons this week. Seattle, off a blowout loss of its’ own in getting whacked 40-21 to San Francisco last Sunday gets its wide receivers back for this must win game vs. Atlanta. The Falcons, meanwhile, are in the middle of a division sandwich with a big home game looming vs. the Saints. Excuse Atlanta if the Falcons lay an egg on Sunday.
Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine. Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool. To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com.
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