NFL Survivor Pool Picks, Advice and Strategies: 2010 Week 13

NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES

1	Eagles	42.0%
2	Chargers	23.1%
3	Seahawks	11.6%
4	Packers	8.0%
5	Chiefs	3.3%
6	Bears	3.1%
7	Vikings	2.4%

2010 NFL Survivor Week 13

Teams used: New England (W), Atlanta (W), Minnesota (W), Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), NY Giants (W), Kansas City (W), Dallas (L), Philadelphia (W), San Francisco (W) New Orleans (W) Cleveland (W)

Well we got lucky last week as Cleveland survived a last second missed FG by John Kasay, but deservedly lucky because our true pick would have been on the Houston Texans.  Unfortunately, when I submitted the column last Tuesday morning the game was off the board.  I had seen early bird numbers in the 3 ½ range, but by Thursday the Texans were released as 6 ½, and were clearly the highest Expected Value play left on our board.  Many readers emailed me for advice, and depending upon their options available, I was able to advise most to take the Texans, Jets or Giants.  Fortunately, Cleveland won. Unfortunately, the Browns were a compromised election.  As we have mentioned in the past, it an be a little tricky to arrive at an answer on Tuesday before the lines move and interpretations can be made.  Still, our column has been on the right side 44/46 weeks for our survivor picks, so let’s keep it going.

Now it’s on to week 13, and for most players, this will not be a challenging week to find a winner.

Philadelphia (over Houston) The Giants are currently a 9 point favorite over Houston and have a 79% likelihood of winning.  The Eagles are the most popular choice this week, so the Expected Value is slightly negative.  Fortunately, we do not have the Eagles on our card, as we burned Philly vs. the Colts.  If you do have Philadelphia available, but do not have San Diego, Kansas City, Green Bay, or the Giants available go ahead and use Philly.  If you have SD, KC, GB, or NYG available, you know what to do.

San Diego (over Oakland) The Chargers are currently-13 over the Raiders and have an 84% chance to win according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook money line.  The Chargers are half as popular as Philly based upon the consensus numbers at officefootballpool.com.  More likely, less popular always make a great Survivor Pool play.  We have SD available and will use the Chargers here.

Green Bay or Kansas City (vs. San Francisco or Denver) We don’t have any of these teams available, but if you are fortunate to have Kansas City or Green Bay, now is your week to use them  Each are favored by 9 ½ points and have a 79% chance of winning according to Pinnacle Sportsbook moneyline.  Due to Kansas City’s slightly lower popularity, KC would be slightly more preferable than Green Bay if you actually have both available.  Either way, Kansas City and Green Bay are probably the two best bets on the board, especially when factoring in San Diego’s popularity this week, as well as the Chargers future utility value: 49ers (week 15) Bengals (Week 16) and Broncos (Week 17)

New York (vs. Washington) The Giants are favored by 7 points and have a 75% chance of winning.  New York is a significantly better play than Philadelphia,as well.  New York is less preferable than Green Bay or Kansas City, however.  Everyone in your pool has probably burned the Giants.  The Giants have no future utility value.  If you still have them, use them this week.

This week, I would rank the available teams in order of preference as Kansas City, Green Bay, San Diego, New York Giants, and Philadelphia.  Every player should have one of these teams available.  There is really no reason to stray off this list.  Take the highest listed team you have.

The Pick: San Diego

Teams to avoid

Minnesota (vs. Buffalo) Minnesota returns home off a road win vs. the Skins facing a Bills team of an OT loss to the Steelers.  Minnesota is favored by 5 points and has a 67% likelihood of winning. I know the common reaction is to over-react to Minnesota’s first win for its new head coach.  The fact remains, however, that Leslie Frazier will play a ball control run first game to minimize turnovers.  The risk is, however, by shortening the game, Minnesota is less likely to be able to pull ahead by a big margin.  No reason to face Air Fitzpatrick with a 4-7 Vikings team looking to play conservative.

Seattle (vs. Carolina) Seattle opened up -6, and has a 70% chance of winning.  Like Minnesota above, no reason to back a losing team like Seattle vs. another losing team like Carolina.  The Panthers, like the Bills, are playing hard and haven’t quit.

Chicago (vs. Detroit) It’s one thing to catch Chicago as a home dog to the Eagles; it’s quite another when the Bears are installed as road chalk vs. the lively Lions with 3 days extra rest.  Word is that Stanton might QB the Lions instead of Hill.  I still don’t know if that will help Chicago here.  It might. The Bears could still struggle.   If Shaun Hill goes, the Bears could be walking into a Bear trap this week.

New Orleans (vs. Cincinnati)  The Saints are laying 7 points on the road to a non-division out-of-conference foe.  Super Bowl Champs as non-division chalk burn money.  Throw in the fact that this game is in Ohio, in December and the Saints are out of their element.  New Orleans has a home game vs. St. Louis next week. Save them.

Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine.  Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool.  To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, or to be invited to next year’s pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com

NFL Survivor Pool Picks, Advice and Strategies 2010: Week 12

NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES

1	Browns	45.7%
2	Jets	26.7%
3	Patriots	8.0%
4	Steelers	6.3%
5	Giants	3.4%
6	Texans	2.9%
7	Broncos	2.0%

2010 NFL Survivor Week 12

Teams used: New England(W), Atlanta (W), Minnesota (W), Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), NY Giants (W), Kansas City (W), Dallas (L), Philadelphia (W) San Francisco (W) New Orleans (W)

Last week we came in with New Orleans and came out with an easy win.  There were not many upsets in week 11, save a 2^nd half collapse by Cincinnati, and a Vince Young meltdown in Tennessee.  Not many players were on the Bengals or the Titans, so unfortunately there is still a lot of work for most of you to do to win your pool.  We have been correct 44/46 weeks.  It’s time to stay on track with our pinpoint analysis.

Now it’s on to week 12.

Cleveland (over Carolina) The Browns are currently an 11 point favorite over the Panthers and have a 85% likelihood of winning.  The Browns are the most popular choice this week getting 45% of the picks at officefootballpool.com.  Right now Colt McCoy’s status is iffy, but I think he is likely to play.  Even if he rests this week, the Browns can turn to Seneca Wallace or former Panthers QB Jake Delhomme.  Obviously, the Browns have no future value.  Sure, it would be nice to avoid a popular pick, but in week 12, the goal is to survive.

NY Jets (over Cincinnati) The Jets are a 8 1/2 point favorite over the Lions and have an 79% chance to win according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook.   The Jets are getting 26% of the picks.  The Jets are almost as likely to win as the Browns, but about half as popular.  Clearly the Expected Value numbers favor taking the Jets this week over the Browns.  The competing issue, however, is the Jets future utility.  The Jets have home games with Miami in week 14 and the Bills in week 17. If you have already used New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and San Diego, I would suggest saving the Jets for week 14, at the least.  

New England (vs. Detroit) The Patriots are currently -6 1/2 and have an 73% chance to win.  Only 8% of the picks at Officefootballpool.com are on the Pats this week.   Most players, including us, have used the Pats by now.  If you haven’t, this would be one of your last chances to play New England this year.  The Patriots also have a road game in Buffalo week 16.

NY Giants (vs. Jacksonville) The G-Men are currently 8 point chalk and have a 78% chance of winning this week.  The Giants are only getting 3% of the picks. The Giants clearly have the most expected value return this week. If you have the Giants available (we don’t), now would be a great week to play the New York card.

Having burned New England and the NY Giants our choice this week comes down to the J-E-T-S- Jets Jets Jets or the Cleve Brownies.  It is hard to disregard the Expected Value in favor of the NY Jets.  The fact remains, however, that the Jets will provide us with further flexibility in future weeks.  Also, Cincinnati is playing the Jets this week with playoff revenge from last year, and might be a little angry after last week’s 2^nd half meltdown.  Cleveland is off a difficult loss and should be hungry this week to bounce back.  Cleveland does not have a high octane offense, so the gamewith Carolina figures to be closer than most expect. With the Carolina QB problems, however, if the Browns do not turn the ball over, Cleveland still should win this game.

The Pick: Cleveland

Teams to avoid

Pittsburgh (over Buffalo) The Steelers are favored by 6 points and only have a 70% chance of winning this week.  Buffalo will be a live home dog with momentum after its 35-0 2^nd half in Cincinnati last week.  With the Steelers clearly having better home spots this year vs. Cincinnati in week 14 and the lowly Carolina Panthers in week 16, no way do we risk the upset this week.

Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine.  Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool.  To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com.

NFL Survivor Picks, Advice and Strategies 2010: Week 11

NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES

1	Chargers	24.8%
2	Cowboys	19.1%
3	Saints	12.5%
4	Steelers	9.9%
5	Jets	6.8%
6	Chiefs	6.1%
7	Ravens	6.0%
8	Bengals	5.4%
9	Titans	5.1%

2010 NFL Survivor Week 11

Teams used: New England(W), Atlanta (W), Minnesota (W), Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), NY Giants (W), Kansas City (W), Dallas (L), Philadelphia (W) San Francisco (W)

Last week we had a miracle win in San Francisco.  Although the 49ers were the ultimate suffer pick, We hope everyone took our advice and used San Francisco, staying away from Tampa Bay.  Tampa Bay might come in handy vs. Detroit in week 15, and none of your competitors can use the Bucs.  We have been correct 43/45 weeks.  It’s time to stay on track with our pinpoint analysis.

Now it’s on to week 11.

San Diego (over Denver) The Chargers are currently a 10 point favorite over the Broncos and have a 83% likelihood of winning.  The Chargers are the most popular choice this week getting 24% of the picks. 

San Diego is off the bye and facing a Broncos squad fresh off a 49-29 victory off its bye vs. the Chiefs.  The bye week shoe is on the other foot this week, and the Chargers should roll.  San Diego, though, has tremendous future utility, however, with 3 straight home games vs. Oakland, KC, and SF weeks 13-15. Combined with its popularity, let’s try to find a better option.

Dallas (over Detroit) The Cowboys  are a 6 1/2 point favorite over the Lions and have an 72% chance to win according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook.   The Boys are getting 19% of the picks.  This is not our better option.  Dallas is significantly less likely to win than the Chargers, yet almost as popular.  Detroit is off a loss to Buffalo last week, and the public will most certainly rush to the Cowboys this week off its upset win in New York last Sunday.  I actually prefer Detroit in this spot.  No way do I risk my survivor pool life on the Cowboys.  Dallas is too popular this week, and the Cowboys are not any more likely to win than a host of other options.

New Orleans (vs. Seattle) The Saints are currently -11 1/2 and have an 86% chance to win.  Only 12% of the picks at Officefootballpool.com are on the Saints this week.   The Saints are the most likely team to win this week, yet few players have the Saints left to use.  If you have the Saints available (we do), you should definitely consider playing your Saints card this week.  By the way, the Saints offer only one other spot to use them this season, a week 14 home game vs. St. Louis.  The Rams will be going to the Big Easy for its 3^rd straight road game in week 14.   I like the Saints in that spot, as well.

Pittsburgh, NY Jets, *Kansas City*,* Baltimore*, Tennessee, Cincinnati (vs. assorted mediocre teams) We have a number of teams this week that will provide options for players that 1) do not have New Orleans available; and 2) would prefer to save San Diego for when the Chargers are less popular.  Of these 6 teams, if you have either KC or Baltimore available (most players don’t), absolutely play the Ravens or the Chiefs this week.

Tennessee or Cincinnati would be the next tier down.  The Titans and Bengals are less popular than the Jets or the Steelers, but with no future utility.  Lastly, I would positively pass on the Jets and the Steelers.  Oakland is off a bye week, and the Steelers have a home game vs. Carolina in week 16.  The Jets have home games against Buffalo, Cincinnati and Miami down the road.

There are a host of games to select this week.  I would rank the available games in order of expected value preference: Baltimore, Kansas City, New Orleans, Tennessee, San Diego, Cincinnati.

We don't have Baltimore or Kansas City available, but we do have the Saints!

The Pick: New Orleans

Teams to avoid

Dallas (over Detroit) See above.

Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine.  Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool.  To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, or to be invited to next year’s pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com.

NFL Survivor Pool Advice, Picks and Strategies 2010: Week 10

NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES

1	Buccaneers	54.9%
2	Giants	28.0%
3	Colts	7.4%
4	49ers	3.2%
5	Jets	1.6%
6	Eagles	1.5%
7	Cardinals	1.3%

2010 NFL Survivor Week 10

Teams used: New England (W), Atlanta (W), Minnesota (W), Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), NY Giants (W), Kansas City (W), Dallas (L), Philadelphia (W)

Last week our Philadelphia pick held on for a 2 point win vs. The Indianapolis Colts, even though the Referees tried very hard to give the game to Peyton Manning.  We have been on the right side 41/43 weeks for our survivor picks.

Now it’s on to week 10, and for most players, this will be a challenging week to find a winner.

NY Giants (over Dallas) The Giants are currently a 14 point favorite over the Dallas and have a 92% likelihood of winning.  We do not have the Giants available.  Most of your fellow pool players do not, as well. Only 28% of the picks are being used on New York due to the lack of availability. In my personal pool, however, 44% of the remaining players have New York available, so I would expect a slightly higher percentage than 28% on NY in my pool.  Either way, if you have the Giants to use this week, you must absolutely pick the Giants this week.  No doubt about it.

Tampa Bay (over Carolina) The Bucs are currently -6.5 and have an 72% chance to win according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook money line.  The Bucs are obscenely popular this week, capturing up to 55% of the selections.   I had intended to pick the Bucs this week until I saw the numbers.  With Carolina’s QB situation, and RB injuries, I thought Tampa Bay would be favored by 8.  The sharps have sided with Carolina here.  Carolina is playing with same-season revenge from a 20-7 loss earlier this season.  Other than this victory, Tampa has yet to win a game by greater than 3 points.  This game is setting up as a big time trap game for the Bucs.  For survivor pool players, TB seems to be way too popular for my recommendation.  TB has a little future utility value though, with a week 15 home game vs. Detroit and a week 16 home game vs. Seattle.

Indianapolis (vs. Cincinnati) The Colts are favored by 7 and have a 77% chance to win.  The Colts are only getting 7.0% of the vote.  The Colts are a much better option than Tampa Bay, if you do not have the Giants available to use, but do have the Colts available. The Colts are significantly less popular than the Bucs yet are more likely to win. We have the Colts available.  It’s an interesting option, but I sure would rather wait for its home dates vs. either Dallas or Jacksonville when the Colts might be healthier.  Also, if your pool requires double picks later in the season, you most definitely want to save the Colts, if possible.

San Francisco (vs. St. Louis) The Niners are favored by 6, and have a 71% chance to win according to the Pinnacle money line.  The Niners are not popular at all, receiving only 3% of the picks.  The Niners 2-6 record must have something to do with its lack of popularity.  In fact, it is almost impossible to explain the popularity difference between Tampa Bay and San Francisco.  The Niners are about as likely to win as Tampa Bay, yet Tampa Bay is 18 times more popular.  If you do not have the Colts or the Giants available, you should really come in with the Niners before picking TB.

Pittsburgh (vs. New England) The Steelers are favored by 4 ½ points vs. New England, and have a 69% chance of winning.  New England is off a loss, while Pittsburgh is off a Monday Night road win.  No one is using the Steelers this week, probably due to the fear of going against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.  Pittsburgh still has games vs. Buffalo, Oakland, Cincinnati, and Carolina, so from a future utility value it would be tough to burn Pittsburgh here.  I really think Pittsburgh wins this game though.  Way too physical for the Patriots.   

Arizona (vs. Seattle) Arizona is a 3 point favorite, and has a 63% likelihood of winning.  Not popular at all, The Cards are in a quick turnaround revenge spot from a 22-10 loss to Seattle in week 7.  The difference this week is Derek Anderson is starting rather than Max Hall.  Arizona has played better in the past 2 weeks.  If you seek an off the radar pick, Arizona might be your ticket this week.  I like Arizona a lot here, but as of this writing it is unknown whether Matt Hasselback or Charlie Whitehurst starts for the Seahawks.  If Hasselback does not get clearance to play, The Cards would probably be my choice.

We do not have the Giants available, so our choices come down to Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, San Francisco, Arizona, or Pittsburgh.  Pittsburgh and Indianapolis have far easier games later this season.  The Colts still have health issues.  Tampa Bay seems the easiest of the 3 remaining choices, but the upside potential of either Arizona (vs. Whitehurst) or better yet, San Francisco, a team that is as likely to win as Tampa Bay, yet decidedly less popular is just too difficult to ignore.  Assume you have 100 players left in your pool and everyone is picking TB or the Giants.  Assume the Giants win.  If we pick SF, on Sunday night, there is a 50% chance that TB and SF wins and we still have 100 players left in our pool.  There is a 10% chance that both TB and SF lose, and it doesn’t matter.  But there is a 20% chance that SF wins and TB loses; and the same 20% chance that TB wins and SF loses.  The difference is that one outcome with a 20% probability produces 45 survivors, while the other outcome with the same probability produces 97 survivors.  The staggering pot odds forces our hand to the Bay Area.

The Pick: San Francisco

Teams to avoid

New York Jets (vs. Cleveland) Cleveland is a home dog off upset wins vs. New Orleans and New England.  The Eric Mangini revenge tour continues this week.  The Brownies.  Again.

Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine.  Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool.  To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, or to be invited to next year’s pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com

NFL Survivor Pool Picks and Advice 2010: Week 9

NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES

1	Falcons	34.9%
2	Vikings	22.4%
3	Packers	10.2%
4	Saints	6.8%
5	Jets	6.7%
6	Patriots	6.2%
7	Giants	5.2%

2010 NFL Survivor Week 9

Teams used: New England, Atlanta, Minnesota, Green Bay, Baltimore, NY Giants, Kansas City, Dallas (L)

The streak ended last week.  I recommended the Cowboys---a poor team, with nothing to play for.  The selection was based purely on the Cowboys non-existent future utility value.  I ignored the negative pot odds, as the Cowboys were the 2^nd most popular choice.  In essence, I hoped to “steal” a win. The proper call for me last week was to recommend either Detroit, Arizona, or Indianapolis.  2 of these 3 teams came through.   We have been correct 41/43 weeks.  Time to get back on track with our pinpoint analysis.

Now it’s on to week 9.

Atlanta (over Tampa Bay) The Falcons are currently a 9 point favorite over the Bucs and have a 81% likelihood of winning.  The Falcons are the most popular choice this week.  Atlanta is available to probably 87% of live entries; The Falcons are off its bye week, and are playing for the division lead.  The Falcons only other spot to use them is in Week 17 (vs. Carolina).  If you have the Falcons available (we do not), you either use them now, or risk leaving them on the table.  I believe the Falcons win this game.

Minnesota (over Arizona) The Vikings are an 8 point favorite and have an 77% chance to win according to the Pinnacle sportsbook.   The Vikings are getting 22% of the picks, so are as likely to win as Atlanta,  but 2/3 as popular.  Minnesota, however, has a week 13 home game vs. Buffalo.  This future utility clearly trumps the negative pot odds in relation to Atlanta.  Also, the eyeball test tells me that Minnesota will be a riskier proposition this week than Atlanta.  Randy Moss was waived.  Percy Harvin is hobbling.  Rumors indicate Brad Childress has lost the locker room.  If you have to select between Atlanta and Minnesota, I suggest you take Atlanta.  The Vikings may play like the Cowboys played last week.

Green Bay (vs. Dallas) The Packers are currently -8 1/2 and have a 78% chance to win.  10% of the picks at Officefootballpool.com are on the Packers this week.   The Packers are a decidedly better option than either Minnesota or Atlanta.  Green Bay is almost as likely to win, but significantly less popular. Green Bay also presents very few future options.  The only risk of this spot is David Garrard publically accused Dallas of not playing hard last week.  This game is nationally televised.  Green Bay will get Dallas’ best shot.  Still, if you have Green Bay available (we don’t) you have to respect the pot odds and play your GB card this week over Atlanta or Minnesota.

New York (vs. Detroit) The Jets are a 4 point favorite and have a 68% chance to win.  The Jets are getting 6.7% of the picks.  New York offers a little future utility with Cincinnati (week 12) and Buffalo (week 17).

The Jets are off a shutout loss, and appear to be a solid choice to bounce back this week as Detroit is off a win.  The Jets are 10-4 straight up and against the spread on the road under Rex Ryan, and is 7-1 against the spread vs. .666 or less competition.  The Jets are an excellent pick if you are trying to avoid the traffic of your fellow pool players.

Philadelphia (vs. Indianapolis) Philadelphia is off the bye week, and is favored by a field goal over the Colts, who are off a Monday night affair.  The Eagles are 60% likely to win.  The Eagles get Mike Vick back at QB, are off a loss 2 weeks ago, and will win this game.  Better yet, not one person in your pool will pick Philadelphia this week.  Philadelphia does not have much future utility value with only a home game against Dallas to look forward to in Week 17.

Unfortunately we have burned the 3 biggest favorites this week, Minnesota, Atlanta, and Green Bay.

Atlanta will undoubtedly be the most popular selection in your pool, followed closely by Minnesota.

All 3 teams have limited future utility, with only Minnesota vs. Buffalo in week 13 a real standout choice.

Of the 3 heavy chalk, I trust Atlanta the most, by far. 

Our options, unfortunately, come down to the New York Jets and Philadelphia.  The Jets are more likely to win, but Philadelphia offers the greater pot odds, and the Eagles offer no future utility.  Furthermore, it could be argued that the popularity of Indianapolis, as well as the popularity of the Jets may distorted the lines just slightly enough so that in reality both the Jets and the Eagles are as likely to win as each other.  Greater pot odds and lack of future utility for the Eagles seal the deal.

The Pick: Philadelphia

Teams to avoid

New England (vs. Cleveland) The Patriots are a 5 point favorite and have a 72% likelihood of winning.  Cleveland is a home dog off the bye week, however.  While Cleveland, in its last game did upset the defending Super Bowl champion. Thus the Browns may be a “play against” based upon this theory.  Still, I defer to the home dog off the bye week angle.  No way do we fall for this trap.

New Orleans (vs. Carolina) The Panthers are a 7 point divisional revenging home dog from a 2 point loss earlier this year.  New Orleans is off a big win vs. the Steelers.  NFL dogs off a straight up and against the spread loss are 30-10 ATS on the year.  Stay away.

Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine.  Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool.  To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, or to be invited to next year’s pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com.