NFL Survivor Pool Advice and Picks

Friday, December 31, 2010

Survivor Pool Picks, Advice and Strategies: 2010 Week 17

NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES

1	Falcons	20.1%
2	Colts	17.8%
3	49ers	17.3%
4	Rams	9.3%
5	Lions	8.8%

2010 NFL Survivor Week 17

Teams used: New England (W), Atlanta (W), Minnesota (W), Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), NY Giants (W), Kansas City (W), Dallas (L), Philadelphia (W), San Francisco (W) New Orleans (W) Cleveland (W) San Diego (L) Pittsburgh (W) Tampa Bay (L-OT) Jacksonville (L-OT)

Well, we were dead right on our games to avoid last week as Dallas and Houston were each risky road chalk and were upset by Arizona and Denver, respectively. Unfortunately our pick of Jacksonville treated us to the second straight OT loss as Maurice Jones-Drew was surprisingly announced as inactive 2 days after we wrote our column. Next year I will see if Big Al will let us get our column in closer to Sunday!!! The extra time would have saved us the past 2 weeks. On a brighter note, my personal pool that I manage crowned a champion last week as the winner survived with double picks of New England and St. Louis, while 13 of our fellow players got knocked out. We had a record $140,000 pot. It was a lot of fun to see a single player stand alone in week 16. This has been a tough month for our column, but our column has been on the right side 45/50 weeks for our survivor picks, so let’s close out the year on a high note. If you are still alive, now is not the time to bite the dust.

Atlanta (vs. Carolina) The Falcons are the most popular choice at officefootballpool.com this week, and for good reason. The Falcons are a 14 point favorite, and have an 88% chance of winning according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook moneyline. Atlanta is off a loss, and needs this game to clinch the No. 1 seed. If you are fortunate enough to have Atlanta available, you know what to do.

Indianapolis (vs. Tennessee) The Colts are currently a 10 point favorite over Houston and have a 81% likelihood of winning. The Colts are the 2^nd most popular choice this week, getting 17% of the picks. Indianapolis needs to win this game, or Jacksonville needs to lose at Houston, for the Colts to win the division. I expect Jacksonville to lose. However, both games kickoff at 4:15. You should receive maximum effort from the Colts. Most people have used Indianapolis. If you haven’t used Indianapolis but do not have Atlanta available, the Colts are an attractive option.

San Francisco (vs. Arizona) The 49ers are currently - 6 over the Cards and have an 72% chance to win according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook money line. The 49ers are also getting 17% of the picks at OFP. Most people have burned Atlanta, Indianapolis, or even Green Bay increasing the popularity of San Francisco. Arizona is off an upset win vs. Dallas and might not be hungry this week

San Francisco also has nothing to play for, and just fired Mike Singletary. Still, for many players San Francisco might be your only option.

St. Louis (vs. Seattle) The Rams are road chalk this week laying 3 points in Seattle. The Rams are overly popular getting 9 % of the picks while only having a 60% likelihood of winning. The popularity of St. Louis relates to the fact that Seattle might have to turn to Charlie Whitehurst at QB this week. Might be an overlay.

Detroit (vs. Minnesota) Detroit has comparable numbers to St. Louis above. Favored by 3, and getting 8% of the picks. I prefer Detroit over St. Louis. But for Minnesota’s upset road win at Philadelphia Tuesday night, Detroit would be favored by 6 ½ points this Sunday. This might be an underlay. If your choices are either Detroit or St. Louis, take the home team with line value.

We do not have Atlanta available, but we do have the Colts. I have to believe the Colts end our year on a positive note.

If your choices are either San Francisco, Detroit or St. louis I would lean to Detroit. I believe the Lions will be decidedly less popular with most of your fellow players creating higher expected value as all 3 teams are about as likely to win.

The Pick: Indianapolis

Congrats to everyone who has survived to week 17. I wish everyone good luck in finding a winner today.

Teams to avoid

Jacksonville (vs. Houston) While mathematically still alive to win the division, the Jags are off 2 losses and are playing into a revenging divisional home dog off a loss. Houston is probably the better team, and will be motivated after losing to Jacksonville on a Hail Mary 4 weeks ago. Trent Edwards gets the QB call for Jax. I would pick Houston completely before I would pick Jacksonville.

New England (vs. Miami) New England is favored by 4 points and has nothing to play for. The Dolphins will play hard in this divisional affair. Stay away from this upset maker.

New York Jets (vs. Buffalo) For the same reasons above, stay away from the Jets who have locked up a wild card seed. The Jets should rest many players in the 2^nd half.

Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine. Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool. To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, or to be invited to next year’s pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com

Thursday, December 23, 2010

NFL Survivor Pool Picks, Advice and Strategies 2010: Week 16

NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES

1	Eagles	29.0%
2	Jaguars	28.7%
3	Steelers	14.8%
4	Cowboys	12.3%
5	Patriots	2.6%
6	Buccaneers	2.5%
7	Dolphins	2.5%

2010 NFL Survivor Week 16

Teams used: New England(W), Atlanta (W), Minnesota (W), Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), NY Giants (W), Kansas City (W), Dallas (L), Philadelphia (W) San Francisco (W) New Orleans (W) Cleveland (W) San Diego (L) Pittsburgh (W) Tampa Bay (L)

Last week we wrote the column 3 days too early. At the time of print there was no line on the Chicago-Minnesota game due to injuries. The early bird line was Chicago – 1 ½. We had Chicago available. We selected Tampa Bay, a 5 point favorite on Wednesday. By Saturday night, a line was finally released on Chicago-Minnesota. Chicago – 8. Tampa Bay was down to – 3 1/2. By Saturday, there is no doubt Chicago would have been our selection. To make matters worse, Tampa Bay lost in overtime after a Bucs TD was taken away for an offensive pass interference call. Although we are only playing for pride at this stage of the 2010 season, I sure do like to make a correct call. Oh well. Can we get a mulligan?? Still, we have been correct 45/49 weeks, so let’s keep the train rolling.

Now it’s on to week 16.

The Heavy Chalk

Philadelphia (vs. Minnesota)

Pittsburgh (vs. Carolina)

New England (vs. Buffalo)

San Diego (vs. Cincinnati)

Most players will not have one of the above teams available this week at such a late stage of the season. If you have any of these 4 teams available, you already know what to do. Play your strong card. While San Diego and New England might be a little scary as road chalk, all 4 of the above options are better than anything else on the board.

Jacksonville (vs. Washington) The Jags are currently a 7 point favorite over the Skins and have a 74% likelihood of winning. The Jags are the most popular choice this week getting 28% of the picks at officefootballpool.com. This is a must win game for Jacksonville. If you have Jacksonville available, but do not have Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New England or San Diego, you should use the Jaguars in this spot. We have Jacksonville available and it is our best option.

Tampa Bay (vs. Seattle) The Bucs are a 6 point favorite over the Seahawks and have a 70% chance to win according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook. While most players do not have Tampa Bay available, if you have both the Bucs and the Jaguars available, Tampa Bay will offer you significantly more expected value than Jacksonville. Tampa Bay is almost as likely to win, but decidedly less popular.

St. Louis (vs. San Francisco) The Rams are in a terrific spot this week in its last home game vs. the 49ers playing with revenge from an earlier OT loss in week 10. Currently, the Rams are a 2 point favorite and are probably available to many of your competitors, as well. Still, due to the coin flip nature of this matchup, many players may avoid St. Louis this week. I really like the Rams to emerge victorious. If you are scarce on options and are looking for winner, the Rams may be your best bet.

Week 16 is a straight forward week for most players. Survive by all means necessary. Take the safest and biggest favorite you have available. For us, it’s the Jags.

The Pick: Jacksonville

Teams to avoid

Houston (vs. Denver) The Texans are favored by 3 points and have a 56% chance of winning this week. Tim Tebow will make his first home start vs. Houston in the Texans’ last road game of the season. From week 15-17, road chalk is 8-31 ATS when playing its last road game off a division contest. Stay off of Houston’s radar.

Indianapolis (vs. Oakland) The exact same situation as Houston vs. Denver above. Stay away.

Dallas (vs. Arizona) Maybe I shouldn’t place Dallas in the teams to avoid section because it’s week 16, and options are limited right now for many players. Dallas is a 6 point favorite in Arizona’s last home game on Christmas Day. The Cowboys are getting 12% of the picks indicating that a large number of players have the Cowboys available. While I would not fault a player in using Dallas with no other options, this game smells trouble. Fresh off 2 divisional home games with another divisional game at Philly on deck, this divisional sandwich might cause severe indigestion. Enjoy your holiday. Christmas is not meant to be spent getting knocked out of your Survivor Pool.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

NFL Survivor Pool Picks, Advice and Strategies 2010: Week 15

NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES

1	Raiders	30.8%
2	Chargers	21.3%
3	Cowboys	13.9%
4	Dolphins	8.9%
5	Patriots	8.9%
6	Buccaneers	7.2%
7	Falcons	3.0%
8	Bears	2.8%
9	Colts	1.0%

2010 NFL Survivor Week 15

We got back on track last week as Pittsburgh rolled to an easy win vs. the Bengals. Some of you may have got knocked out by the Jets loss to Miami or Denver’s crushing upset at the hands of Arizona. We clearly warned you that Denver was a horrible selection last week as Denver has now lost the last 8 games that it has been a popular selection in Survivor pools over the past 4 seasons. 8 failures in a row for the Broncos. Denver is the ultimate survivor pool mush. (Although---surprise--- we love Denver this week!!!) We have been correct 45/48 weeks, so let’s keep the train rolling.

Now it’s on to week 15.

San Diego (vs. San Francisco) The Chargers are currently a 10 point favorite over the 49ers and have a 82% likelihood of winning. The Chargers are the 2^nd most popular choice this week getting 21% of the picks at officefootballpool.com. This is the last home game for San Diego. We do not have the Chargers available, although we wish we did. San Diego is the team most likely to win this week. If you have them, play them.

Dallas (vs. Washington) The Cowboys are a 6 point favorite over the Redskins and have an 69% chance to win according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook. The Cowboys are getting 14% of the picks. In week 1, Dallas outplayed Washington, but was upset sending the Cowboys’ season into a tailspin from the start. Dallas has not forgotten this loss. If you do not have San Diego, but do have Dallas, the Cowboys are your next best option. We do not have Dallas.

New England (vs. Green Bay) This game currently has no line due to the status of Aaron Rodgers. We do not have New England available. If you do have the Pats, and if Rodgers is not playing, you know what to do!

Tampa Bay (vs. Detroit) The Bucs are currently -5 1/2 and have an 67% chance to win. Only 7% of the picks at Officefootballpool.com are on the Bucs this week as most players burned the Bucs vs. Carolina. We did not. The Bucs are a viable option for us.

Indianapolis (vs. Jacksonville) The Colts are currently 4 1/2 point chalk and have a 67% chance of winning this week. The Colts are only getting 1 % of the picks. Most people do not have the Colts available. We do. In fact, if San Diego did not unkindly knock us out of our double pick pool 2 weeks ago, the plan was to try to win our pool with Tampa Bay and Indianapolis this week. Ahhhh, the best laid plans of mice and men…….The Colts are as likely to win as Tampa Bay, but less popular. The Colts, however, do offer future utility for us in week 17 vs. Tennessee. Utility that I think we will need.

Week 15 is a tricky week for most players. I feel this week is critically important in the games to avoid as I sense 3 big upsets that will happen (see below). Hopefully, all of you can play one of either Dallas, San Diego, New England, Indianapolis or Tampa Bay. This is a difficult decision for us this week as I prefer Indianapolis more this week than I prefer Tampa Bay. The problem for us if we take the Colts this week, is week 17 when our options will be reduced to either the Jets or Houston. Neither team may play starters. I prefer to save Indianapolis for week 17. If Indianapolis wins this week, it will need to win in week 17 vs. Tennessee. If the Colts lose this week, then I am glad I avoided them.

The Pick: Tampa Bay, sort've by default

Teams to avoid

Oakland (vs. Denver) The Raiders are favored by 6 1/2 points and have a 71% chance of winning this week. Oakland is the most popular selection this week with 30% of the picks backing the Crack and Silver. In week 7, Oakland took the Broncos behind the woodshed and humiliated Denver 59-14. Last week, Denver received a second dose of humiliation losing 43-13 to Arizona. With blowout loss revenge to Oakland, plus a blowout loss last week, the Broncos will bounce back and beat Oakland this Sunday.

Call your bookie and bet Denver this Sunday. The points are the bonus.

Miami (vs. Buffalo) The Dolphins are favored by 5 /1/2 over the Bills and have a 66% likelihood of winning. Just like Oakland above, Miami is playing into a revenging underdog from a week 1 matchup. Miami is off a big upset win at the Jets last week. I expect a letdown in Miami this Sunday. The Dolphins are 1-5 at home this season. Buffalo outright. Stay away.

Atlanta (vs. Seattle) This upset alert might surprise many but I sense a dangerous trip to the Pacific Northwest for the Falcons this week. Seattle, off a blowout loss of its’ own in getting whacked 40-21 to San Francisco last Sunday gets its wide receivers back for this must win game vs. Atlanta. The Falcons, meanwhile, are in the middle of a division sandwich with a big home game looming vs. the Saints. Excuse Atlanta if the Falcons lay an egg on Sunday.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

NFL Survivor Pool Picks, Advice and Strategies 2010: Week 14

NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES

1	Falcons	32.2%
2	Jets	16.6%
3	Steelers	14.3%
4	Jaguars	11.1%
5	Saints	6.3%
6	Chargers	3.8%

2010 NFL Survivor Week 14

Last week we suffered an unexpected setback as our pick on the San Diego Chargers over Oakland failed to come through for us. It is our first pick in 3 years that I felt strongly about that failed to win. I am understandably not amused this week as the upset knocked me out of my own private pool. Still, we have been correct 44/47 weeks. It’s time to get back on track with our pinpoint analysis.

Now it’s on to week 14.

Atlanta (over Carolina) The Falcons are currently a 7 1/2 point favorite over the Panthers and have a 75% likelihood of winning. The Falcons are the most popular choice this week getting 32% of the picks at officefootballpool.com. To me, this line seems a little “soft.” I expected to see -9 on the game. The Falcons are just not a tempting situation for me this week. The Falcons are way too popular, and it seems like a little bit of a trap game.

NY Jets (over Miami) The Jets are a 5 1/2 point favorite over the Dolphins and have an 69% chance to win according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook. The Jets are getting 16% of the picks. The Jets are almost as likely to win as the Falcons, but about half as popular. Clearly the expected value numbers favor taking the Jets this week over the Falcons.

Pittsburgh (vs. Cincinnati) The Steelers are currently -9 1/2 and have an 81% chance to win. Only 14% of the picks at Officefootballpool.com are on the Steelers this week. Pittsburgh is clearly a better choice than either Atlanta or the Jets. This is a decent spot to use the Steelers; but if you wish to save the Steelers for an even better spot, Pittsburgh has a week 16 tilt vs. Carolina.

Jacksonville (vs. Oakland) The Jags are currently 4 1/2 point chalk and have a 67% chance of winning this week. The Giants are only getting 11 % of the picks. I personally feel the Jags get the win this week. Oakland has not fared well this year as a west coast team travelling east getting crushed by Tennessee and Pittsburgh, getting outscored 75-13 in the process. I also feel there are more compelling options.

Having burned Atlanta and New Orleans this year our choice this week comes down to Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, or the NY Jets. The Jaguars do not entice us this week mainly because Jacksonville faces an even weaker opponent in week 16, Washington. The Jets are appealing only because it is off an extremely humiliating 45-3 Monday night loss to the Patriots. I fully expect New York to bounce back this week. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is off a big road win vs. Baltimore and returns home as 9 ½ point chalk vs. a revenging Bengals team. It is tempting to save Pittsburgh for week 16 vs. Carolina but the fact remains the Steelers are less popular yet significantly more likely to win than the Jets. The Steelers and the Saints are the 2 teams most likely to win this week. We have the Steelers available. Week 16 will give us plenty of options.

The Pick: Pittsburgh

Teams to avoid

Philadelphia (over Dallas) The Eagles are favored by 3 1/2 points and only have a 66% chance of winning this week. Dallas is playing hard for its new coach and is returning home finding itself in a dog role after an outright dog win vs. Indianapolis. The Eagles are 4-0 ATS since Wade Phillips was released. Stay away.

Denver (over Arizona) The Broncos, winners once in their last eight tries get installed as 3 ½ point road chalk vs. the hapless Cards. A number of players emailed me this week about trying to steal a win with an under the radar Broncos pick. Yes, I realize the Cards are starting a rookie QB. Still, attempted theft will get you 5 to 10. Or a suicide pool knockout. Keep your hands where I can see them.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

NFL Survivor Pool Picks, Advice and Strategies: 2010 Week 13

NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES

1	Eagles	42.0%
2	Chargers	23.1%
3	Seahawks	11.6%
4	Packers	8.0%
5	Chiefs	3.3%
6	Bears	3.1%
7	Vikings	2.4%

2010 NFL Survivor Week 13

Teams used: New England (W), Atlanta (W), Minnesota (W), Green Bay (W), Baltimore (W), NY Giants (W), Kansas City (W), Dallas (L), Philadelphia (W), San Francisco (W) New Orleans (W) Cleveland (W)

Well we got lucky last week as Cleveland survived a last second missed FG by John Kasay, but deservedly lucky because our true pick would have been on the Houston Texans. Unfortunately, when I submitted the column last Tuesday morning the game was off the board. I had seen early bird numbers in the 3 ½ range, but by Thursday the Texans were released as 6 ½, and were clearly the highest Expected Value play left on our board. Many readers emailed me for advice, and depending upon their options available, I was able to advise most to take the Texans, Jets or Giants. Fortunately, Cleveland won. Unfortunately, the Browns were a compromised election. As we have mentioned in the past, it an be a little tricky to arrive at an answer on Tuesday before the lines move and interpretations can be made. Still, our column has been on the right side 44/46 weeks for our survivor picks, so let’s keep it going.

Now it’s on to week 13, and for most players, this will not be a challenging week to find a winner.

Philadelphia (over Houston) The Giants are currently a 9 point favorite over Houston and have a 79% likelihood of winning. The Eagles are the most popular choice this week, so the Expected Value is slightly negative. Fortunately, we do not have the Eagles on our card, as we burned Philly vs. the Colts. If you do have Philadelphia available, but do not have San Diego, Kansas City, Green Bay, or the Giants available go ahead and use Philly. If you have SD, KC, GB, or NYG available, you know what to do.

San Diego (over Oakland) The Chargers are currently-13 over the Raiders and have an 84% chance to win according to the Pinnacle Sportsbook money line. The Chargers are half as popular as Philly based upon the consensus numbers at officefootballpool.com. More likely, less popular always make a great Survivor Pool play. We have SD available and will use the Chargers here.

Green Bay or Kansas City (vs. San Francisco or Denver) We don’t have any of these teams available, but if you are fortunate to have Kansas City or Green Bay, now is your week to use them Each are favored by 9 ½ points and have a 79% chance of winning according to Pinnacle Sportsbook moneyline. Due to Kansas City’s slightly lower popularity, KC would be slightly more preferable than Green Bay if you actually have both available. Either way, Kansas City and Green Bay are probably the two best bets on the board, especially when factoring in San Diego’s popularity this week, as well as the Chargers future utility value: 49ers (week 15) Bengals (Week 16) and Broncos (Week 17)

New York (vs. Washington) The Giants are favored by 7 points and have a 75% chance of winning. New York is a significantly better play than Philadelphia,as well. New York is less preferable than Green Bay or Kansas City, however. Everyone in your pool has probably burned the Giants. The Giants have no future utility value. If you still have them, use them this week.

This week, I would rank the available teams in order of preference as Kansas City, Green Bay, San Diego, New York Giants, and Philadelphia. Every player should have one of these teams available. There is really no reason to stray off this list. Take the highest listed team you have.

The Pick: San Diego

Teams to avoid

Minnesota (vs. Buffalo) Minnesota returns home off a road win vs. the Skins facing a Bills team of an OT loss to the Steelers. Minnesota is favored by 5 points and has a 67% likelihood of winning. I know the common reaction is to over-react to Minnesota’s first win for its new head coach. The fact remains, however, that Leslie Frazier will play a ball control run first game to minimize turnovers. The risk is, however, by shortening the game, Minnesota is less likely to be able to pull ahead by a big margin. No reason to face Air Fitzpatrick with a 4-7 Vikings team looking to play conservative.

Seattle (vs. Carolina) Seattle opened up -6, and has a 70% chance of winning. Like Minnesota above, no reason to back a losing team like Seattle vs. another losing team like Carolina. The Panthers, like the Bills, are playing hard and haven’t quit.

Chicago (vs. Detroit) It’s one thing to catch Chicago as a home dog to the Eagles; it’s quite another when the Bears are installed as road chalk vs. the lively Lions with 3 days extra rest. Word is that Stanton might QB the Lions instead of Hill. I still don’t know if that will help Chicago here. It might. The Bears could still struggle. If Shaun Hill goes, the Bears could be walking into a Bear trap this week.

New Orleans (vs. Cincinnati) The Saints are laying 7 points on the road to a non-division out-of-conference foe. Super Bowl Champs as non-division chalk burn money. Throw in the fact that this game is in Ohio, in December and the Saints are out of their element. New Orleans has a home game vs. St. Louis next week. Save them.