NFL SURVIVOR POOL PICKS AND ADVICE 2010: WEEK 8

NFL SURVIVOR POOLS PICKS, ADVICE AND STRATEGIES

1	Chiefs	50.3%
2	Cowboys	12.4%
3	Jets	10.2%
4	Patriots	8.8%
5	Colts	5.7%
6	Rams	5.2%

2010 NFL Survivor Week 8

Teams used: New England, Atlanta, Minnesota, Green Bay, Baltimore, NY Giants, Kansas City

Well, 7 weeks into the season and we are still perfect, with really not too much of a sweat.  In fact, I do not believe that any of our 7 picks have been behind in the 2^nd half at any point in our games.  Last week we warned everyone about the potential for the upset in Baltimore.  I hope everyone that had Baltimore as an option saved the Ravens for week 12.  If nothing else, you probably added 3 months to your life.

Now it’s on to week 8, and what a difficult week this is.

Kansas City (over Buffalo) The Chiefs are currently a 7 ½ point favorite over the Bills and have a 76% likelihood of winning.  Now, we burned KC last week so we thankfully cannot use the Pats.  However, if you have the Chiefs available, you can see by the above chart that they are extremely popular this week, garnering 50% of the picks.  Way too popular this week when considering other options.  From a future utility value, KC still has Arizona in week 11 and Oakland in week 17. 

Dallas (over Jacksonville) The Cowboys are currently -6.5 and have an 72% chance to win according to the Pinny money line.  The Cowboys are only getting 12% of the picks, so are almost as likely to win as Kansas City,  but 1/4 as popular.  Dallas has zero future utility value, especially when one considers Tony Romo is out for 8 weeks.  Meanwhile, Jacksonville is getting David Garrard back this week.  Dallas is an interesting, yet risky option this week.

NY Jets (vs. Green Bay) The Jets are currently -6 and have an 71% chance to win.  10% of the picks at OFP are on the Jets this week.   The Jets are a comparable pick to Dallas.  The Jets are coming off its bye week and should be fresh.  Green Bay is off an emotional win vs. Minnesota on Sunday night.  I would have no problem using the Jets in this spot.  The Jets, however, do have future utility.  The Flyboys have @ Detroit (week 9) @ Cleveland (Week 10) Cincinnati (Week 12) and a home game with Buffalo (Week 17). 

Indianapolis (vs. Houston) The Colts are favored by 5 ½ and have a 71% chance to win.  The Colts are only getting 5.8% of the vote.  The Colts are an interesting option. The Colts are half as popular as Dallas and the Jets, yet almost as likely to win.  Indy is playing with revenge from its Week 1 ambush in Houston.  Still, with Indianapolis depleted by injuries, and with a week 15 game vs. Jacksonville to look forward to, I would rather save Indy for when it has a healthy squad and a less challenging opponent.

Arizona, Detroit, and St. Louis (vs. Tampa Bay, Washington, and Carolina)  Each of these 3 bottom feeders each are favored by about a field goal, have about a 58% likelihood of winning, and offer zero future utility value.  I like all 3 teams this week.  Only St. Louis is garnering any attention getting 5% of the picks at OFP.  Thus, if you wanted to steal a win either with Detroit or Arizona for the most upside, you would have my blessing.

This is as challenging a week as any I can remember.  I had Dallas penciled in for this week from the beginning of the season.  The Tony Romo injury sure does complicate matters.  I can’t say I am terribly confident of Jon Kitna  QB’ing the Cowboys.  Still, the fact remains that this is a last man standing pool, and it will help us greatly to have the Jets and the Colts available for the stretch run.  In fact, looking ahead to next week, we have burned the 2 best teams that will be available…Minnesota and Atlanta.  It looks like we might need the Jets as soon as next week.   While I surely would like to have the guts to tell you to pick the Lions or the Cardinals this week, I will defer to the Vegas linemakers that have determined each team’s statistical probability of winning.

May God be with us this week.

The Pick: Dallas

Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine.  Each week, the Kmish will provide you insight on how to stay alive in your survivor pool.  To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, or to be invited to next year’s pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com.

NFL Survivor Pool Picks and Advice 2010: Week 7

1	Ravens	45.2%
2	Saints	21.9%
3	Broncos	16.0%
4	Chiefs	9.0%
5	Seahawks	4.0%

Teams used:  New England, Atlanta, Minnesota, Green Bay, Baltimore, NY Giants

6 for 6 so far this year, and we really haven’t had to sweat very much.  Your pool probably has about 30% of the original entrants still alive.  Hopefully our advice has helped you to stay alive.  Also, we have been calling a lot of the upsets.  Last week, our top pick to stay away from---the Chicago Bears---were upset by Seattle.  Now it’s on to week 7.

Baltimore (vs. Buffalo) The Ravens are currently favored by 13 points over the 0-5 Bills, and have a 86% chance to win according to Pinny.  45% of the picks at OFP are coming in on the Ravens.  We have burned Baltimore, but even if we had the Ravens available, NO WAY do we use the Black Birds here.  Also, winless double digit underdogs (like the Bills) off the bye week tend to pull off shocking upsets over the years.  Now, I am not saying the Bills will win here…or am I?? If you have the Ravens available, I suggest you save them for Week 12 vs. Tampa Bay.

New Orleans (vs. Cleveland) Like the Ravens, the Saints are currently favored by 13 points, but are half as popular as Baltimore.  The Saints have an 86% chance to win according to Pinny. The Saints are a significantly better option than Baltimore this week.  Colt McCoy acquitted himself quite well last week vs. Pittsburgh, and should have an easier time this week vs. New Orleans. The Saints are likely to win, but the Saints do have some future value with home games remaining vs. Seattle (week 11) St. Louis (week 14), and Tampa Bay (week 17).  I would love to keep the Saints around and play my New Orleans card when no one else can.

Denver (vs. Oakland) Denver is currently favored by 8 ½ over Oakland and have a 78 % chance to win according to Pinny.  Denver is getting 16% of the picks at OFP.  While less popular than New Orleans, the Broncos are significantly less likely to win than the Saints are.  Denver does have St. Louis in Week 12 which might offer comparable security.  In the past 2 years Denver has burned Survivor Pool players more than any other team.  No way I would not drop down to Denver, and leave New Orleans on the table for a 6% difference in popularity.

Kansas City (vs. Jacksonville) Kansas City is currently favored by 9 1/2 points over Jacksonville, have an 81% chance to win, yet are receiving only 9% of the picks at OFP.  This number is likely to rise however, as the books were waiting until Thursday night to release a line due to the quarterback injuries for Jacksonville.  3^rd stringer Todd Bouman is likely to start. Kansas City is off 2 difficult losses and returns home for the first game in a month.  It’s counterpart, Jacksonville, was embarrassed on national TV Monday night.  I would expect both teams to have the mind-set to bounce back.  Only KC, though, will have the manpower.  The Jaguars, due to injuries, simply will be outmatched.  KC will be able to put 8 in the box to take away Jones-Drew, and the Jaguars do not have the QB or the WRs to take advantage.  From a future utility standpoint, Kansas City has Buffalo (week 8) and Oakland (week 17).  KC is likely to be VERY popular in week 8.  In fact, Dallas (vs. Jacksonville) and KC will draw all the picks next week.  I do not wish to hold Kansas City for week 8 when 40% of the pool will use the Chiefs.   Nor do I wish to dance with a winless Bills team.  I also will never save a team for week 17.  This is simply a great spot to use KC against an injured team on a short week with travel.  Let’s keep the Saints in the back pocket.

The Pick: Kansas City

Teams to avoid in week 7

Seattle (vs. Arizona) Seattle is favored by 6, and has a 72% chance to win.   Seattle is off a dog win and is now favored vs. a team off its bye week.  Seattle was favored once this year, losing outright vs. the Rams.  Division dogs are 21-6 ATS in 2010.  I see no reason to go against a rested divisional dog.  Last week teams off the bye were 4-0.

Good luck to all this week.

Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine. Each week, the Kmish will provide his expert insight to you on how to stay alive in your survivor pool. To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, or to be invited to next year’s pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com.

NFL Survivor Pool Picks and Advice 2010 Week 6

1	Steelers	66.0%
2	Giants	22.1%
3	Bears	3.6%
4	Chargers	3.4%
5	49ers	2.1%

Teams used:  New England, Atlanta, Minnesota, Green Bay, Baltimore

Well, 5 weeks into the season and we have been on the right side of 4 easy blowout winners, and only one suffer pick—Green Bay over Detroit in week 4. We have also had an uncanny ability to advise you on the upsets to avoid, and week 5 was no different as we correctly called Oakland’s upset of San Diego.  Your pool probably has about 35% of the original entrants still alive.  The fun now begins.  Now it’s on to week 6.

Pittsburgh (vs. Cleveland) The Steelers currently favored by 13 1/2 points, and has an 86% chance to win according to Pinnacle.  Of course, any chalk laying this type of wood is undoubtedly going to be VERY popular.  Big Ben is back for the Steelers, and Colt McCoy gets to make his NFL debut vs. Dick LeBeau’s defense.   Pittsburgh is going to win this affair, but 66% of the picks at OFP are on the Black and Gold.  The Steelers have future value galore with a home game remaining vs. Oakland (week 11), at Buffalo (week 12) and a home game vs. Carolina (week 16).  I would love to keep the Steelers around and play my Pittsburgh card when no one else can.

NY Giants (over Detroit) The Giants are favored by 10 points over Detroit, and have an 81% chance of winning according to Pinny.  While less likely to win than the Steelers, the Giants are only receiving 22% of the action.  The bigger issue is future utility.  New York’s future utility value is non-existent, with only a home game vs. Jacksonville (week 12) and Washington (week 13) to look forward to.  This is really the best and only chance to use New York for the remainder of the year.  I can make the argument that Pittsburgh over Buffalo on the road in week 12 will be a safer option than New York’s home affair over Jacksonville, so we can use the Steelers in week 12, or even save the Steelers for Carolina in week 16 and come in with Denver over St. Louis in week 12.  Taking the gamble with New York this week will set us up to possibly win the pool in later weeks.

San Diego (vs. St. Louis) San Diego is currently a 9 point favorite and has a 79 % chance of success to survive this week.  San Diego is getting only 3% of the picks, but like Pittsburgh has great future value with home games vs. Denver (week 11), Oakland (week 12), Kansas City (week 13), and San Francisco (week 14). The Chargers would also be good to keep around.  While the Chargers have tremendous pot odds this week, I just don’t see the upset in Pittsburgh happening.  No reason to take road chalk that has already shown its ability to lose every road game this year at Seattle, Oakland, and Kansas City.  Save the Bolts for a home game in weeks 11-14.

The Giants are definitely a riskier pick this week than grabbing the layup that Pittsburgh provides. The Lions offense has been frisky this year, scoring 26 points in Green Bay and 44 points at home the last 2 weeks.  There is no doubt that the Lions could pull an upset here.  I want to make it clear that I have no problem if anyone chose to just take Pittsburgh and move into week 7.  The only way the Browns can steal a win in Pittsburgh is if Joshua Cribbs breaks a punt return, or Big Ben throws 2 pick sixes.  The Steelers will take away Peyton Hillis and Colt McCoy does not have the WRs to beat the Steelers.  As I started to research this week’s column, I had every intention to just recommend Pittsburgh and take the easy way out.  However, this column’s purpose is to help you win your Survivor Pool, rather than just stay alive a few weeks longer.  To win your pool, you will have to take a different path than the traffic to obtain the future opportunity to play with strength when your competitors play with weakness.  You also will have to utilize teams on your board when the best opportunity presents itself.  It’s now or never for New York.  We are going to avoid the traffic on Pittsburgh’s North Side, and head to the Big Apple.

The Pick: New York Giants

Teams to avoid in week 4

Chicago (vs. Seattle) Chicago is favored by 7, and has a 75% chance to win.  Jay Cutler is back from his concussion.  Seattle has been non-competitive on the road this year.  Like New York, Chicago has zero future utility value.  If this game was played last week, it might have been an interesting option.  With the New York Giants on the board, there is no reason to even consider Chicago here.  Seattle is off a loss and off its bye week.  Just no reason to go against this combination with a quarterback I don’t trust named Jay Cutler.

San Francisco (vs. Oakland)  San Francisco is currently favored by 6 ½ points over Oakland, and has a 72% chance of winning.  At 0-5, it is just not worth the risk to buy into the 49ers.  If you really have to fulfill a need to use San Fran, just wait for its home game vs. St. Louis (week 10).

Good luck to all this week.

Potato Kmish is the pool manager of a long-running NFL Survivor Pool featured in past articles in ESPN the Magazine. Each week, the Kmish will provide his expert insight to you on how to stay alive in your survivor pool. To contact Potato Kmish for advice on the team you should pick in your pool, or to be invited to next year’s pool, please email him at potatokmish@gmail.com.